I think you're missing a big point about the AOL - AT&T Comcast deal.
As my friend Fred Davis mentioned to me: "AOL never created any compelling original content, so they're gonna tube with this 'content channel' approach deal - with Comcast. The both of you (Doc and Kevin) employ similar logic that says that since 'the people' is where it's at - and AOL T-W clearly has no clue as to how to work with people - their new business model completely misses the mark. I totally agree that all the hot opportunities for US is in community oriented activities, but.....
......as far as AOL is concerned, it's a different matter.
I'm here to say I 'kind of' disagree with you.
AOL T-W is the world's largest copyright holder and media company. AOL is the host to more IMing and inter-personal communication going on (with 35M mail accounts) than just about any one entity (with AIM and ICQ added to the mix.) And YES - I'd be the FIRST guy who'd say that the current AOL doesn't have a CLUE when it comes to knowing what original interactive content programming is all about.
Over the years Time-Warner - and before their merger with Time, Warner......has been the leader and number #1 risk taker in the world of interactive content. 1) They never learned anything from their own lessons, or produced any decent interactive content, 2) they took a bath with the Orlando test trials and 3) were the laughing stock of Holllywood, as they lost their early lead with Pathfinder and blew it finally with Entertaindom but 4) you gotta hand them credit - that they at least were trying.
It was many years later that MTV finally picked up on chat and audience interaction with TRL. Or ABC figured out how ot have folks vote on what play the questerback would call - during the SuperBowl. It was many years later that crude Interactive TV started to appear (mainly in Britian with SkyTV.) And show me another media conglomerate that's taken the number of risks and sticked their neck out there and tried to figure out just what on-line Interactive Entertainment and Content was all about?
Who - Sony? Phillips? Matsushita? No I think if you step back and see if from their point of view, T-W really WAS the logical partrner to merge with AOL. They didn't have the hardware albatross that Sony now has, or a TV Network to lock themselves into old business models.
T-W guys are 'content' and cable folks. They understand the cable business, why HBO is as powerful as it is - and how the symbiotic relationship between cable programming, subscribers and coax infrastructure controls basically what we know of - as TV today. Gone is the power of the 3 big networks. Gone are the days of network shows being 10-30 times bigger than cable equivalents. Anna Nicole, Ozzy and Sarah Jessica Parker - draw as big a audience as Pop Idol or the Simpsons.
Pro sports is enjoyed via cable as much or MORE than it is via the networks. Bring videogames and PC's into the mix and you'll see that the power shift in the media world today has placed AOL T-W - and their combined properties - SMACK DAB into the middle of the converged universe.
For all it's potential and opportunities - who would have thought that Sony's main power base and revenue generator - in 2002 - would be it's videogame device and the software sold for it? With all the bluster, visionary talks and 'media device' hype - what has Sony done - more than save the planet earth from destruction from vengeful alien forces?
AOL T-Ws attempt at turning AOL into another kind of 'content channel' is brilliant! If you can't fight un, join un. If nobody groks the potential of interactive entertainment, information and communication - cut the hype and get on with producing something of value.
HBO and CNN as sister companies ain't gonna hurt. Having Harry Potter 2 (and eventually 3,4, &5), Matrix 2 & 3, Two Towers and the rest of the Tolkien renditions (and Madonna's greatest hits) is what the AOL channel will be all about.
Interactive Sports Illustrated. Interactive TV CNN. Turner Classic Movies, Comedy Channel - the possibiities are endless. If something takes off, they can extend it or sequel it on the WB channel, or run it on one of 7 HBO channels.
Sex in the City - part 84, Six Feet Under - again. Yes I know it all sounds like the same hype from before, but we ain't talking about running on 8M set top boxes. We're talking 5M customers day one - combined with the world's largest media library, production company and core communications services.
So when AOL gives up on their pre-determined, already proven wrong - 'can't work' business model of 'owning the cable access customers', and cuts a REAL commerce deal with REAL partners who TOGETHER are gonna supply INTERACTIVE PROGRAMMING to real HUMANS - I say RIGHT ON. This is a turning point a day to celebrate!
Now of course, they'll actually have to produce something cool now. This also assumes that they'll be able to deliver compelling user experiences, etc. But all those challenges are solveable.
:-)
