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Marc's Voice
Home LANs + Broadband + Devices

Wednesday, April 09, 2003
 

How broad before you can call it broadband?. The Register: How broad before you can call it broadband? Anybody remember the days when broadband was defined as >=1Mbps? Of course fiber to the home was right around the corner, too. [Hack the Planet]

Some British agency is saying that 128kbps is NOT broadband.  Right on!  Maybe one day we'll properly call today's broadband = mid-band, when we finally get FTTH 5 Mbps or better into our homes.

 

News Corp. buying DirecTV. Here's terrible news: The News Corp. has reached a deal to buy control of Hughes Electronics and DirecTV. From the NY Times: Completing the final piece in Rupert Murdoch's global satellite empire, the News Corporation agreed today to buy control... [JD's New Media Musings]

I love 24, the Simpsons and many of the other Fox programs, but their Fox News channel is downright fascist.  Fox got there by taking chances and innovating.  But there's a pretty good chance that Murdoch's yellow journalism aesthetic will rein supreme.  Things don't look too good in the world of telco/media.

 AOL 

It Adds Up (and Up, and Up) [New York Times: Technology]

This article reaffirms my beliefs that there is PLENTY of money that people will spend on digital services and content.  The problem has been up until now that the quality of the content and experience sucks and that there have been very few services folks will pay for. 

But as time goes on, we'll figure out ways for EVERYONE to make some of that eCommerce cash, besides just eBay, Amazon, Experida and Match.com.  Once Sony, Matsushita and Samsung get into the game - I think that Hollywood will come to their senses - lower their prices and offer reasonable usage terms (like after you pay for something - you get to still own it!)

Surprise, surprise - people are different and pay for different things - based upon their interests:

Many families consider extensive cable television access or unlimited cellphone use to be a greater priority than access to the Internet. Music lovers might tend to spend more for subscriptions to online jukeboxes or satellite radio systems. Frequent business travelers are likely to spend more than others for access to mobile wireless Internet services.

Disposable income spent on "information and entertainment has risen from 6% to over 10%.  Bob Pittman talked about $159 a month being a goal.

Allan Tumolillo, the chief operating officer of Probe Research, a consulting firm in Cedar Knolls, N.J., that specializes in the telecommunications sector, said his biggest concern was consumer debt, which is now more than $1.7 trillion. Measured as a percentage of the nation's gross domestic product, that is the highest consumer debt level since the beginning of the Great Depression, according to government data.

"This new-economy thing of subscribe to this, subscribe to that gets to be a lot of money," Mr. Tumolillo said. "You end up with some people paying $500 to $1,000 a month between their cable service, their cellphones, their phone lines, their long distance, their Internet service provider, two or three information services, music videos, what have you."

Writing in an advisory for his clients in the telecommunications sector recently, Mr. Tumolillo suggested that baby boomers who are approaching retirement age during an economic downturn might change their habits.

"Where will consumers put their dollars?" he wrote. "On services like D.S.L., cable modems, multiple cellular lines, I.S.P. accounts, online gaming, other subscriber-based services? Or will they shift spending toward more home improvement, toward health care, savings, paying off debt? This is extraordinarily difficult to predict."

Ms. Boren suggested that perhaps the biggest cost of network creep was not in dollars but in the lost opportunities, amid the unrelenting buzz of a hyper-connected culture, to reflect quietly on the day's events or life in general. "The lack of a cellphone allows me to have unproductive moments," she said.

Here's a chart I did - reacting to a projection of $159 a month - called "AOL pipe dreams" (by some BigMedia mag.)  Lots of things were right, but lots of other things were left out.

 

A picture named viewJM.jpgviewJM. We made it! The view from our cottage in Jamaica. [Adam Curry: Adam Curry's Weblog]

I totally love Jamiaca. I have a few Jamiacan friends - who I've actually done business with and I have my favorite resort - Nirvana on the beach in Negril.

I actually was part of the first computer user-group meeting in Jamaica in 1993 - where we got nerds, artists, musicians and kids together in the same room.  It was wild.

If anyone wants an incredible vacation - make sure to give Lonnie a call and tell them I sent yah!

Social Capital of Blogspace.

Perhaps we are in the Network Age [Ming], following modernism and post-modernism.  After obsessing about construction, then deconstruction, we now value the links between deconstructed bits.  When those links are between people, they can be valued as social capital.

Robert Putnam, in Bowling Alone, popularlized the role of social capital.  Francis Fukayama, in Trust, principally discusses the correlation between social capital and the prosperty of nations.  He defines social capital as the ease in which people in a culture can form new associations.

Network Layer Unit Size Distribution of Links Social Capital Weblog Mode 
Political Network 1000s Power Law/Scale-free Sarnoff's Law (N) Publishing
Social Network 150 Random/Bell Curve Metcalfe's Law (N2) Communication
Creative Network 12 Even/Flat Reed's Law (2n) Collaboration

As previously described in the Ecosystem of Networks, people use weblogs in different modes: Publishing, Communication and Collaboration.  By dramatically lowering the cost for these modes on the public internet -- they are rapidly increasing the value of social capital.  Each mode provides different valuation methods:

  • Publishing: Sarnoff's law says the value of a network is porportionate to the number of subscribers.
  • Communication: Metcalfe's law says the value of a network is porportionate to the number of nodes.
  • Collaboration: Reed's Law says the value of a network is porportionate to the number of groups.

Now Sarnoff + Metcalfe + Reed does not equal a valuation methodology, but centering on the value of different kinds of relationships reveals where investment would provide greater return.  Enhancing communication and ties between collaborative groups enables exponential growth of social capital. 

The above image also recasts the Ecosystem of Networks with the individual as the center, as preferred by many...

From Zack Lynch's forthcoming book:

...Unlike many of his contemporaries, the insightful UC Berkeley sociologist Manuel Castells in his ambitious two thousand page trilogy, The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture [retitled the Rise of the Network Society] provided a comprehensive assessment of the impact of information technologies have on culture and global society at large. Castells’ extensive analysis of how "our societies are increasingly structured around the bipolar opposition of the Net and the Self” will remain an important perspective for some time to come. Here, the “Net” stands for the new organizational formations, social and cultural, based on the pervasive use of networked communication media...

Perhaps we are living in a Network Age, building a Network Society.  Perhaps Emergent Democracy is as significant as a Second Superpower.  But at the least, we are building new relationships-- a connectedness that we should value.

[Ross Mayfield's Weblog]

Up until now - social networking systems and tools have focused on enabling specific areas of the Ecosystem of Networks.  But what if the same tool could enable ALL types of social networks?  A really SIMPLE tool?

Personal (private) Networks - are for storing your media, email, IM, your web page and blog and managing your Home LAN.

Creative (group) Networks (sometimes also called Community or Village) - are (as Ross points out) ideal for collaboration.  But these sort of networks also intimate clustering of people that just feels warm and fuzzy (I personally think this size can go up to 25 people)

Social Networks - which can bloom into Political Networks - are all really part of an open ended public kind of community - are the metaphor for communication, publishing and all things interactive.

Now what happens if the same tool can enable normal people to creae and maintain these sorts of networks?  the SAME tool.  Wouldn't that be to on-line communities, what Director was to multimedia?  Flexible enough to do anything, but specific and powerful to enable anything?

 

Laszlo SystemsWebby Award nominees announced. The 7th annual Webby Award nominees were announced late Tuesday. Here's the list of nominees. You can vote in the People's Choice Awards through May 23. Lots of good, obscure sites here. The ceremony -- which has lost much of... [JD's New Media Musings]

Congratulations to my friends at Laszlo Systems - David Temkin et al - for their nomination for Best Technical Achivement Webby.  What a coincidence - we're having lunch together today.

Their competition is stiff: Apache, Google, Linux and pHpBB.  Quite a group to be part of!  It's this last one - a php Bulletin Board that's got me intrigued. Perhaps Socialtext can make it compatible with what they're doing?????


Updated: 9/17/2003; 12:14:23 PM.