Mr. Robert Scoble (who likes pizza) has a couple of retorts to Mr. Joi Ito - regarding his latest brilliant analysis of the latest trends and key technologies available to us today. My retort is at the bottom (after I finish off some cold pizza...)
Joi Ito, in a must-read rant about mihttp://joi.ito.com/archives/2003/07/22/thoughts_on_microcontent_metadata_and_trends.html crocontent trends says "Microsoft will continue to dominate the desktop, but it will become less relevant as consumer electronics companies embrace open standards and use Internet web services and applications to make consumer electronics devices rich with content."
Um, Joi, did you have some bad sushi before you wrote this?
Let me explain why you're wrong.
First of all, Microsoft is investing a LOT in "non PC devices." So, even if you're right that the desktop will become less important (hint: you're not), I don't think you can count Microsoft out, or race and say it'll become less relevant.
Second of all, TONS of people are getting camera phones. What's the first thing they do? Post them on a web site, right? OK. So far, camera phones + server means that the desktop is outta the picture, right? But, where do people view those camera phone pictures? I'll tell you where I look at Chris Pirillo's moblog, for instance: on my Tablet PC.
So, how again did the new device that came along decrease the relevance of the desktop?
Now, I predict Joi's answer will be that Japanese kids don't use PCs and they just use cell phones for everything. Well, sorry. Viewing a photo off of one of those new Nikon multi-mega-pixel pro cameras on a small cell phone screen just isn't my idea of fun. And trying to type ASCII characters into a weblog on a cell phone's keypad ain't my idea of fun either (and, yes, I've played with the latest in phones -- a co-worker just brought a bunch back from Tokyo). The fact that some kid somewhere is doing that, doesn't prove a thing.
But, I've been corrupted. I can predict the future a bit since I've seen a ton of secret stuff inside Microsoft. I certainly don't think the desktop becomes less relevant. In fact, to a whole raft of users, the desktop (or, the Tablet top, if you will) will be more important in 2005, not less.
[The Scobleizer Weblog]
1. Robert's right that the PC ain't going away - but that's not what Joi said. He said: "less relevant" This common misnomer of the 'battle between PC and the TV or the PC and [insert the device du jour] is not what's going on. In the 'buzzword du jour' mentality of the world today, everyone wants to know what the latest trend is. What's relevant? Who's effecting change? Who's leading the pack?
Digging deeper Robert also seems to take offense of Joi's statement about 'open standards' and Microsoft's less relevancy when it comes to consumer electronics and Internet ready devices. Sure Microsoft has placed a bet on every game that exists today. Remember WebTV? PocketPC? How 'bout that $5B into AT&T? But that doesn't mean they know how to produce products for humans or make these technolgoies sucessful.
For those of us paying attention - Microsoft has just announced (for the fourth or fifth time) an Interactive TV deal with COMCAST. I mean come on - just 'cause they don't call it Interactive TV or seem to have revisionist history and forget to mention all the OTHER announcements doesn't mean we have forgotten the past. Microsoft (for some reason) just doesn't get consumer electronics. Period.
2. Robert also notes that cam phone results are often viewed on PCs. He's right. But Joi's point is a broader trend issue. An open world - where new types of devices (which Microsoft will copy and attempt to make - but will fail) will become more important in our lives. That's all. It's a simple statement. But Mr. Red Pill himself has to go and defend the world's largest corporation - somehow implying it has the RIGHT to dominate all categories.
Just one word - network boxes. How come Microsoft got into the network hub and wireless box business? Did that invent that? Provide any innovation? Even provide a significant price break? No. It's just me-too technology from the embrace business model that's been driving Microsoft for 20 years.
So unless Microsoft starts INNOVATING - their contributions are the filler. The back of the pack, me-too followers that flesh out a mainstream world of technology. If Robert wants to see Microsoft stay relevant - then get them to innovate and SHIP some of these technologies being developed in the labs. Don't just copy other people's innovations after a market has matured.
Shelly Powers new 'Practical RDF' book is out and she's got a new blog for it. She weighs in publicly on some discussions we've been having in private.
